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This is the time of year when aspirations can cloud good judgment. “But there are SO MANY people searching for ‘Christmas gifts’ and we do sell Christmas gifts so shouldn’t we at least be on the first page?!?”

Experience has taught us to try to talk our clients off that intellectual ledge. They don’t always listen, and that’s cool. True, every business is different and maybe what hasn’t worked for the last 100 clients will work for this one…but I’d bet against it.

The person searching for “Gifts” has no flippin’ idea what they want. By definition, the chance that any category-specialist retailer will have it is really really small. Conversion rates will be dreadful. Combine that with the fact that so many other lemmings can’t resist the temptation that it might cost $2 per click to be on that first page and inefficiency is guaranteed. Worse, because so many people DO search for that it will not just be wasteful percentage-wise, but will be a LARGE loss as well.

Conversion rates reflect how well the advertiser’s wares match the average user’s intent when that user types in a particular phrase. The fact that some guys would LOVE electronic gadgets does not mean the electronic gadget store will do well on “gifts for guys.” Some guys are more likely to want sports equipment, or tickets to a big game, or power tools, or music, or…the list goes on. Unless the advertiser sells ALL of those things, they’re going to find “gifts for guys” on page one a really unfortunate place to be. I can hear our Google and Yahoo reps screaming as they read this :-)

We don’t always succeed in talking people out of these tests — sometimes the allure of those keywords-cum-bug lights is just too strong, and often it’s the corner office driving the decision — but we do feel an obligation to try. It seems to me that that’s the job of an agency — to use its experience to help their clients avoid train wrecks. We’d expect the doctor to advise us against hitting ourselves in the head with a hammer to stop a headache.

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  1. Victoria Khemani, December 4, 2009:

    This tendency reminds me of the dollar auction thought exercise. In this case, the beneficiary is the search engine rather than the professor.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_auction

  2. George Michie, December 4, 2009:

    A brilliant metaphor, Victoria, and one of my all time favorite thought problems!

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  • George Michie: Art, your observations about negatives are very interesting. Hopeful the selection bias will get people to read before they click,...
  • George Michie: John E., thanks for stopping by! You make an excellent point over as SEL, but I think what will happen is a positive selection bias....
  • John: I too am concerned about the long tail effect. Users are going to have to “wade” through competing websites to find anything...
  • John Ellis: As a paid search marketer, I am little concerned about the long-tail effect. Hopefully, I am wrong. FYI – See my thoughts here:...
  • Jc: Yeah when you’re talking about Google, they already have a large set of randomly sampled statistics on user behavior from their tests...
  • Art: Here are some observations I have so far. 1. Example: In my daycare campaign I have “jobs” as a negative phrase match keyword. When I do a...
  • George Michie: Dale, it will be fascinating to see how this plays out. I have to believe that it won’t result in a greater propensity for...
  • George Michie: Another interesting possibility: If users no longer scroll, but “just keep typing” does that mean that the click volume...
  • Dale Stokdyk: For me, it’s hard to believe the 3 second rule is enough — in my gut, I suspect impressions will increase. Also, I...
  • George Michie: Great point, JC, They made the comment during the press conference that they think* users will conduct more searches around the...
  • Jc: I think it will be very interesting what will happen to impressions and CTR. Based on the assumption that whatever Google does increases their...
  • George Michie: Dale it’s a great question. I wonder what fraction of searches actually happen from Google.com vs toolbars vs an iGoogle...
  • Dale Stokdyk: George, I use the Google Search Bar 99% of the time — I wonder about others? Was fascinating to watch the search results change...
  • George Michie: :-) Somewhat less so…Yahoo?…don̵ 7;t get me started :-)
  • Jc: Now my question is, do you share the same level of faith about Bing? Haha.

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