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Negative News Flow Is A Lagging Indicator

Wise words today from Paul Kedrosky, reposted here in their entirety:

As the cascade of devastatingly awful economic news grows in volume, it’s worth reminding yourself that negative news flow is a lagging indicator. We are hearing about what has happened, in other words, not what will happen in the coming weeks and months — and that has been awful (to the tenth or so power).

Now, does that mean that the market has discounted all the badness out there? Of course not. But things will improve on the economic ground, or least stabilize, long before it shows up in the headlines. In the interim, expect the pace of layoff news to spike much, much higher.

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  • Alan Rimm-Kaufman
    Alan Rimm-Kaufman founded the Rimm-Kaufman Group...
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